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Chiefs vs Broncos predictions, picks, odds

To take
Bronco +9.5
Broncos ALT line +10.5 (-135)

Chris Raybon: The Chiefs come off two convincing wins – a 41-14 shellacking from the Raiders and a solid 19-9 win over the Cowboys – and are coming off a bye, where Andy Reid is 16-11 (59%) ATS ( ATS) in his career, so the market is showing a lot of love to the Chiefs with a 9.5-point gap.

However, 9.5 points is a lot for a team that has won in double digits in just four of its last 18 regular season games dating back to last season (excluding a Week 17 game without. service against the Chargers).

The Broncos were built with the Chiefs in mind specifically, and it starts with Teddy Bridgewater, who has been much better on the road in his career than Reid with more time to prepare.

Meanwhile, the Chiefs are just 6-15 (29%) ATS as favorites since the middle of last season and including the playoffs.

The Chiefs have won in double digits in just four of their last 18 games, so it’s no surprise they struggle to cover when favored by one or more touchdowns. How bad has it been? In their last eight games when they’ve been favored by seven or more since last season, the Chiefs are 0-8 ATS.

I’d play that at the +8 Broncos. You can read my full breakdown of that match here.

Broncos ALT line +10.5 (-135)

Michel Arinze: If anyone can devise a plan to slow down Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs, it’s Broncos head coach Vic Fangio. Fangio is behind the two-level security look that has taken the NFL by storm in recent seasons. With this scheme, he can disguise his blanket while still allowing the ability to transform into a unique look.

The system roughly begs opponents to throw the ball, which tends to result in added expected negative points (EPAs) compared to when the opposition throws the soccer ball. Its objective is to limit the ability of the opposing team to create explosive games on offense.

This is precisely how the Broncos managed to keep the Cowboys scoreless for 53 minutes in Week 9. If this is done successfully, you force the elite teams to run the length of the field and win their game. dots inside the red zone. By TeamRankings, the Broncos are ranked 10th to allow their opponents touchdowns in the red zone (54.17%). In contrast, the Chiefs rank 16th with a red zone scoring rate of 59.52%.

This line seems a bit high, especially for a division game.

Our Action Labs database shows that the AFC West teams that are at least 9.5 outsider points are 56-39-3 for 12.55 units there. But if I’m being honest, I would love the Broncos even more if I could catch them in double digits.

BetMGM has alternative spreads on this game, and with Denver available at +10.5 (-135) – this is a bet that suits me more. I would play the Broncos on the alternate line at +10 or better.

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